With Derby’s surprise sacking of Paul Clement yesterday, I thought it was worth putting it into context by taking a quick look at how the automatic promotion race is shaping up in the Championship.

Current probabilities

I’ve been using my E Ratings to model how each club’s probabilities of promotion, relegation etc has been changing this season and Derby’s chances of securing a top two finish have reduced sharply during their current poor run of form. Here’s the latest snapshot of where each club is likely to end up:

Despite Hull’s defeat and Middlesbrough going for a third successive match without a win, they remain the two favourites to secure automatic promotion. This is due to a combination of their strong underlying performances and the fact that both have games in hand over most of the chasing pack (most teams have played 30 matches but Hull are on 29 and Middlesbrough 28).

Derby are currently one of three sides trailing in their wake, but look far more likely to secure a play-off place as things stand. However it wasn’t always this way, as we’ll see next.

Change over the season

Because I run and store my simulations every week, we can track how the probabilities in the first graphic have changed over time. The following animated chart shows how the probability of finishing in one of the two automatic promotion places has changed this season for the current top six clubs:

Hull and Middlesbrough have been the two leading promotion candidates since the start of 2016; while their chances of automatic promotion have dipped slightly in recent weeks, the top two spots appear to be theirs to lose.

Burnley‘s win over the Tigers at the weekend has seen their chances of breaking that duopoly continue to rise, while Brighton – for so long a promotion front-runner themselves until their form collapsed – are also on the up once more. Whether either club can make up the remaining ground remains to be seen, but it’s shaping up to be an interesting end to the season.

Until their defeat at the Riverside in early January, Derby were narrowly behind Boro in the title race, but their prospects of a top two finish have dropped sharply to 13% from a high of 60%. While a recovery is still possible, they need a brisk return to form if they’re to barge their way back into the reckoning.

I’ll probably be repeating this for the the other divisions in the near future, so if you’ve got any feedback on this then please let me know. If you’re curious about how these probabilities can change so rapidly, Steve Jackson posted a very useful explanation of this yesterday:

A final word on Derby

While the rapid deterioration of their promotion prospects will undoubtedly have been a source of frustration to the Rams’ board, it appears that promotion wasn’t the primary objective this season and the reasons for Clement’s departure included the terms “progress”, “performances” and “style”.

While I can’t measure the latter, I can certainly take a stab at the first two. When I updated my regular comparison of the Championship’s clubs after the weekend’s matches, it was clear that Derby have remained among the division’s better all-round performers this season.

Here’s the fourth graphic from that post, which measures the quality of chances created and allowed:

The Rams are firmly wedged among the division’s best performers at both ends of the pitch, as evidenced by their position in the bottom right. In terms of progress, when we compare this to last season it looks as though there has been a clear improvement:

Comparing the raw numbers on these two charts, it looks as though Clement had maintained Derby’s quality up front while making them much tougher to break down. Whatever negative impression he had been making, it’s likely to have been more to do with style than competence, assuming that his employers have been honest about their reasons for sacking him.

As an aside, you’ll notice that the overall numbers for the division are lower this season. This appears to be down to a reduction in the number of shots: there have been around 6% fewer per match compared to 2014/15 and I’ve not yet looked into why this might be.