I’ve used each club’s current E Ratings and those of their remaining opponents to predict how the rest of the season could pan out, simulating the rest of the season 10,000 times to generate probabilities for where each club will finish.

The graphics shows the cumulative probability of where each club could finish, in descending order of their average final position across every simulation. You can think of the ordering of the teams down the left hand side as a “best guess” of the final league table, with the coloured bars showing the relative likelihood of each club ending up in a certain section of the table:

Hull and Middlesbrough remain the favourites to claim the two automatic promotion places, with Boro’s recent dip in form insufficient to dent their chances significantly (perhaps due to others beneath them also stuttering). While Burnley are currently in second place, Boro are only a point behind with two matches in hand.

The current top six looks likely to be the final one, with Ipswich having the best chance of nudging their way into contention; albeit only around one in three as it stands.

At the bottom Charlton remain very likely to drop to League 1 having drawn a blank for the third successive match, with Rotherham and Bolton both also looking more likely than not to suffer relegation. The likes of MK Dons and Bristol City aren’t out of the woods yet however.

Burton remain heavy favourites to finish in the top two – the title looks to be theirs to lose, with an advantage of four points and two games in hand over Wigan in second.

The Latics themselves will have to fight off the challenge of Walsall and Gillingham in what is currently a three-way tussle for the second automatic promotion place.

Coventry, Millwall and Bradford look the most likely to fill out the top six based on their underlying performances to date.

With four relegation places the battle to avoid the drop to League 2 remains wide open, although three of the spots have likely occupants in Oldham, Crewe and Colchester. Crewe’s defeat to Colchester was actually their first in seven matches, but they had drawn five of the previous six and therefore hadn’t racked up sufficient points to climb out of the relegation reckoning.

The quartet of Fleetwood, Blackpool, Chesterfield and Shrewsbury are currently vying to avoid the fourth relegation spot – everyone else looks to be virtually safe, barring a late collapse coupled with a collective dash for survival from the teams beneath them.

Northampton‘s record-breaking rampage has further cemented their prospects of securing one of the three automatic promotion places, with Plymouth and Oxford still the most likely to join them despite some patchy recent form.

Either Accrington or Portsmouth could yet barge their way into the top three, although the play-offs look a more likely destination for both.

Bristol Rovers and Wimbledon are currently in the best position to fill out the final top seven, although Wycombe, Leyton Orient and Carlisle are still in with a chance. The model doesn’t have similar hopes for fifth-placed Mansfield because their position looks to have more to do with them having played more matches than the teams around them than the strength of their performances.

A horrible run of results has made Dag & Red the clear favourites for relegation, while Hartlepool, Yeovil and York are now scrapping to avoid joining them in the final bottom two. With two games in hand over the rest, Hartlepool would appear to have the best chance of escape.

Cheltenham‘s four-point lead over Forest Green makes them the clear title favourites at the moment. Grimsby remain the division’s best-rated side but their recent dip in form means that they would still be 13 points behind the leaders if they won their games in hand.

Tranmere and Dover look the likeliest to join the aforementioned three clubs in the final top five, although both Eastleigh and Braintree could take advantage of any slips.

Three of the four relegation spots have likely occupants in Torquay, Welling and Kidderminster, but the final place remains up for whatever the opposite of “grabs” is. One of Boreham Wood, Halifax and Altrincham will probably join them as it stands.

 

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Note: There’s still plenty of time for things to change, with enough matches remaining to significantly affect these probabilities and a team’s actual results increasingly dominating their underlying performances as a factor in these calculations as the number of available points decreases.