Here is the latest update to my E Ratings (explained here) for the Championship, which track the attacking, defensive and overall strength of each club based on the quality of chances they create and allow.

The graphic below lists each club in descending order of their overall rating and shows how this – along with their attack and defence ratings – have changed over the past 30 league matches. The numbers in brackets show how their attacking and defensive ratings rank within the division.

Hull‘s ratings are continuing to improve and they remain the strongest-looking side in the division, with many of their immediate rivals struggling for form.

The E Ratings still don’t think much of Burnley‘s underling performances – or Birmingham‘s – so it will be interesting to see if both can maintain their current pace.

It’s crazy how many good chances Bolton have created this season, considering how few goals they’ve scored: a reliable finisher could have made all the difference for them – and still could.

Brentford‘s attack was insanely dangerous last season but now looks to have cooled down to a relatively average level.

MK Dons‘ performances are deteriorating alarmingly and they now look to be one of the favourites for the drop.

Charlton are comfortably the worst-rated side in the division – as they have been for some time – and remain very likely to be relegated as things stand.

Predicting the rest of the season

Below I’ve used each club’s current ratings and those of their remaining opponents to predict how the rest of the season could play out. Each of the remaining fixtures has been simulated thousands of times using the current E Ratings to generate probabilities for where each club will finish.

This graphic shows the cumulative probability of where each club could finish, in descending order of average points won. You can think of the ordering of the teams down the left hand side as a “best guess” of the final league table, with the coloured bars showing the relative likelihood of each club ending up in a certain section of the table:

The current top two of Hull and Middlesbrough are the overwhelming favourites for automatic promotion, while three of the four play-off spots appear to have Derby, Brighton and Burnley‘s names on them.

Both Charlton and Bolton need to improve fast if they are to avoid sinking into League 1, but the third relegation spot remains tricky to call. Bristol City, Rotherham or MK Dons are all similarly likely to finish in the bottom three, and it’s perfectly possible for Fulham to also be in the mix.