Here is the latest update to my E Ratings (explained here) for League 1, which track the attacking, defensive and overall strength of each club based on the quality of chances they create and allow.

The graphic below lists each club in descending order of their overall rating and shows how this – along with their attack and defence ratings – have changed over the past 30 league matches. The numbers in brackets show how their attacking and defensive ratings rank within the division.

League leaders Burton are still the best-rated side by far, although interestingly neither of the two sides immediately below them in the league table – Walsall and Gillingham – are ranked as highly. The Saddlers look to be on the wane so it will be interesting to see how they fare in the coming weeks.

Barnsley continue to improve and could even be an outside bet for the play-offs, while Swindon and Fleetwood have also made huge strides lately.

Crewe remain the worst-ranked side by far and don’t appear to be improving, which means that their survival prospects remain bleak.

Predicting the rest of the season

Below I’ve used each club’s current ratings and those of their remaining opponents to predict how the rest of the season could play out. Each of the remaining fixtures has been simulated thousands of times using the current E Ratings to generate probabilities for where each club will finish.

This graphic shows the cumulative probability of where each club could finish, in descending order of average points won. You can think of the ordering of the teams down the left hand side as a “best guess” of the final league table, with the coloured bars showing the relative likelihood of each club ending up in a certain section of the table:

Burton remain the clear favourites to finish in the top two, with Walsall and Gillingham the next most likely as it stands.

Wigan and Coventry are the other two clubs with a better than 50:50 chance of making the top six.

Fleetwood‘s improving performances and games in hand mean that they are likely to escape the relegation zone at deteriorating Shrewsbury‘s expense.

There doesn’t appear to be much hope for Crewe, with Colchester and Oldham also in dire need of points.