Here is the latest update to my E Ratings (explained here) for League 2, which track the attacking, defensive and overall strength of each club based on the quality of chances they create and allow.

The graphic below lists each club in descending order of their overall rating and shows how this – along with their attack and defence ratings – have changed over the past 30 league matches. The numbers in brackets show how their attacking and defensive ratings rank within the division.

Oxford remain the top-ranked side and Portsmouth a close second, with both continuing to put in impressive performances this season.

Bristol Rovers and Wimbledon have both had strong ratings for a while now and have begun stringing together results to go along with them.

Another side to watch could be Carlisle, whose impressive attack has often been undermined by a leaky defence but now look to be tightening up. The reverse is happening at Notts County, whose defensive rating is collapsing: there’s plenty for their new manager to address.

Hartlepool are listing worryingly: their defence has gotten significantly worse in recent weeks and they could find themselves dragged into the relegation battle despite their games in hand.

It’s not looking good for York either: their ratings are still deteriorating and they look to be in danger of being cast adrift at the foot of the table.

Predicting the rest of the season

Below I’ve used each club’s current ratings and those of their remaining opponents to predict how the rest of the season could play out. Each of the remaining fixtures has been simulated thousands of times using the current E Ratings to generate probabilities for where each club will finish.

This graphic shows the cumulative probability of where each club could finish, in descending order of average points won. You can think of the ordering of the teams down the left hand side as a “best guess” of the final league table, with the coloured bars showing the relative likelihood of each club ending up in a certain section of the table:

The current top three of Northampton, Plymouth and Oxford look very likely to remain there until the end of the season.

Beneath them, Accrington‘s games in hand give them a solid chance of consolidating a play-off place alongside Portsmouth and Bristol Rovers.

The relegation picture is slightly more open, with the current bottom three of Yeovil, Dag & Red and York fighting to be the one that avoids the drop.