Here is the latest update to my E Ratings (explained here) for the National League, which track the attacking, defensive and overall strength of each club based on the quality of chances they create and allow.

The graphic below lists each club in descending order of their overall rating and shows how this – along with their attack and defence ratings – have changed over the past 30 league matches. The numbers in brackets show how their attacking and defensive ratings rank within the division.

Grimsby remain comfortably the highest-rated side in the division and their impressive form since mid-November has seen them steadily climb the table. Second-ranked Tranmere have found it tougher to convert their performances into results this season, but have now won four of their last five.

Both Wrexham and Macclesfield look to be on the wane so may struggle to remain in the play-off hunt, while Halifax, Aldershot and Southport are on the rise.

Welling are still the worst-ranked team and their performances have gotten even worse in recent weeks. While Guiseley have picked up some points lately they also look to be in decline and could get dragged into the relegation battle.

Predicting the rest of the season

Below I’ve used each club’s current ratings and those of their remaining opponents to predict how the rest of the season could play out. Each of the remaining fixtures has been simulated thousands of times using the current E Ratings to generate probabilities for where each club will finish.

This graphic shows the cumulative probability of where each club could finish, in descending order of average points won. You can think of the ordering of the teams down the left hand side as a “best guess” of the final league table, with the coloured bars showing the relative likelihood of each club ending up in a certain section of the table:

Cheltenham remain title favourites but both Grimsby and new league leaders Forest Green are still in the race. Fourth-placed Eastleigh are the only other side with a better than 50:50 chance of at least a play-off finish.

At the bottom it still looks pretty desperate for Kidderminster, who have now 15 points from safety having lost six in a row while scoring just twice. Both Torquay and Welling are much more likely than not to go down with them, but the fourth relegation place is much harder to call at this stage.