Midweek timelines, 13-14 Sep 2016

A quick explanation

You can skip this if you’ve seen these before.

Returning from last season, here are match timelines for each of the midweek matches. There’s a full explanation of these here, but in a nutshell they track how each club’s expected goals tally (the number of goals that the average team would have scored from the chances that they created) increased over the course of the match.

This allows us to get a better sense of how each game played out than from just watching a highlights package. Every jump in a line is a shot, with bigger jumps corresponding to more promising chances (at least as far as we can tell from the limited data available at this level). There are two numbers next to each club’s name: the first is how many goals they scored and the second (in brackets) is how many goals the average club would have scored from their shots. The latter number is what the lines track, with dots on the lines showing goals scored.

You can browse previous timelines by selecting “VISUALISATIONS > TIMELINES” from the menu.



Brighton may have needed a late goal to win this but it looks like a comfortably dominant performance in which they were the far more deserving winners. Huddersfield have started very well overall this season but the flatness of this performance raises the question of how well-equipped they are to take on the division’s bigger sides.

Poor Derby just can’t catch a break at the moment. They still have just one league goal this season despite a much improved and dominant showing here, with Ipswich creating a goal out of just a few relatively speculative efforts. If the Rams continue to perform like this then they’ll surely turn a corner eventually.2016-09-13-fulham-burton

While the last-gasp nature of Fulham’s equaliser will have disappointed Burton, the overall result here should not. The Brewers had been out-created by their hosts – a relatively rare occurrence in an impressive debut season at this level – so would have been fortunate to take three points even before the Cottagers’ late surge.2016-09-13-leeds-blackburn

Leeds look to have edged a relatively even game here, although they had the better of things overall. After taking the lead they look to have taken their foot off the gas, allowing Blackburn a way back into the game, only to reassert themselves in the dying moments.2016-09-13-norwich-wigan

Norwich’s early two goal lead may have seemed a touch fortunate at the time but but the end of the game they had earned their victory. Wigan offered little for the first hour here and, while they just about merited their place on the scoresheet overall, look to have been second best.

Cardiff’s awful start continued here, with the Bluebirds virtually anonymous for the first hour of this contest. By that point hosts Preston were already two goals up and able to resist their visitors’ fightback before adding a late third. While the margin of victory looks to have flattered the hosts a bit, they created the better chances and presented the more regular threat.2016-09-13-qpr-newcastle

The undoubted “ouch” result of the season so far saw Newcastle score three goals in first gear and three more in fifth. While QPR were kept impressively quiet in the first half, the first three of the visitors’ goals came from a relatively modest display but – perhaps in response to the lack of resistance – they rained in much more dangerous chances thereafter to seal a superb victory.2016-09-13-reading-birmingham

Despite being the home side, Reading can be the happier with a draw here, having been out-created by a Birmingham side who are looking more dangerous than last season. Each team kept pace with the other and both could have found the scoresheet, but the visitors’ opportunities were more threatening overall.

Sheffield Wednesday look fortunate to have turned a two goal deficit into a win, particularly after conceding a penalty which Bristol City missed on the hour mark. However the Owls had otherwise been in control for much of the second half, and did enough to at least draw the game.2016-09-13-wolves-barnsley

While Barnsley’s late glut of goals made this contest look more one-sided than it actually was, they still created chances of roughly twice the quality of Wolves’ overall. The hosts can therefore have few complaints about the result, even if the scoreline was a somewhat unfair reflection of their efforts.2016-09-14-aston-villa-brentford

It looks like Villa took the foot off the gas too early after their opening goal here, although both sides endured long spells without troubling the other’s defence. Brentford’s late equaliser looks to have been deserved given that they matched their hosts for chance creation overall.

While Rotherham led for long periods here it looks like they can be happy with a point overall, given that Forest’s late comeback saw them out-create their hosts. Around two thirds of the visitors’ attacking output was crammed into a mad final quarter of an hour which saw them turn a deficit into a lead before being pegged back.

League 1


There was also one League 1 match, in which Bristol Rovers’ equalising penalty earned them the point which was the least they deserved here. Walsall were able to cling on for a draw despite being heavily out-created and not shooting at all for the final 25 minutes of this contest.