League 1 previews, 22 Apr 2017

Below are the individual preview graphics for each game in the forthcoming round of fixtures. These smash together minimalist versions of two visualisations: each club’s E Ratings and their relative positions on the attack and defence scatter graphics.

I’ve explained them fully here, but in summary they’re intended as a simple pre-match comparison of two teams using high-level performance data. The graphic has three sections:

  1. The current ratings (with ranks) of the two teams and how these have changed over the past 30 league matches;
  2. A probability forecast for the match based on the ratings;
  3. Scatter graphics showing the teams’ attacking and defensive performance this season.

Before we launch into them, here’s each match is listed in descending order of how likely a home win is. It probably doesn’t need to be said, but this is NOT betting advice – there’s loads of relevant stuff that the model doesn’t factor in (e.g. injuries and suspensions) that will surely have an impact.

All four play-off incumbents have a good chance of shoring up their positions this weekend. Bradford are all but guaranteed a play-off spot but could still secure a more favourable semi-final draw if they make their advantage count against Wimbledon. Millwall, Fleetwood and Bolton are also fancied to prevail, but challengers such as Southend and Rochdale have trickier-looking away trips.

Individual matches

Here are the graphics for each game in a gallery format.