What’s still possible: 17 April 2018
Here’s the weekly update of what’s still mathematically possible – and likely – this season. The way the graphics work is pretty straightforward – I just took the version I created a few years ago, which have a bar stretching between each club’s highest and lowest possible finishes, and nested a minimalist chart of my latest model predictions inside each bar. The latter was based on this rather neat visualisation I saw a few weeks ago.
If you want to check any of my calculations then there’s a really useful site – hasithappened.net – which automatically does something similar and there’s also a handy tool for each division that you can use to manually check what’s possible.
There’s the view that Man City fans want! Champions League football is technically still a possibility for anyone as far down as Burnley, and not guaranteed for anyone besides the champions, while everyone beneath the Clarets is still in (at least theoretical) danger of relegation. The bottom two of Stoke and West Brom are the only teams incapable of a top half finish at this point.
Wolves are now sure of promotion but can still be beaten to the title by Cardiff. The Bluebirds – along with Fulham and Aston Villa – are the only teams assured of at least a play-off place, with everyone as far down as Bristol City still in the mix. Nottingham Forest and everyone beneath them are still able to be relegated at this stage.
The top three are the only ones capable of automatic promotion, while whoever misses out could find themselves contesting the play-offs with a combination of 12 other sides: everyone down to Gillingham (with the exception of Fleetwood, who haven’t enough fixtures left to close the gap) can still make the top six. Blackpool and everyone beneath them are still mathematically in danger of relegation, with Bury now guaranteed to finish in one of the bottom two places. There are still six teams who can be either promoted or relegated!
There are still seven teams capable of securing automatic promotion: the entire top eight except for out-of-sorts Mansfield, who have played two more matches than Lincoln. The play-offs are still mathematically open to 14th-placed Cambridge – thanks to a game in hand – while everyone from Crewe on downwards can’t yet rule out being relegated to the National League.