Expected goals league tables, 4-7 Oct 2019
These alternative league tables are calculated using expected goals (as seen in my match timelines). There’s a full explanation in the first post here.
Despite suffering their second defeat of the season, Man City would still be top of the table if it was calculated using expected goals, as they’ve yet to be significantly out-created. The same goes for Man Utd and Everton despite some poor performances, with the Toffees seeing seven of their eight matches finish with their expected goals tally close to that of their opponents.
Leeds were finally out-created this weekend, although being reduced to 10 men after 14 minutes is a pretty decent excuse and the data still suggests that they should be sitting comfortably at the summit. Stoke remain rooted to the bottom of the table but it looks likely that they’ve suffered some bad luck – particularly in defence – and could easily be in the top half based on their performances. Bristol City and Nottingham Forest on the other hand could be sitting higher right now than their true position, with the Robins yet to significantly out-create an opponent and Forest having only done so twice.
Accrington‘s performances have looked healthier than their results so they should be safe from relegation this season. Ipswich appear to be the biggest overachievers, with defensive heroics helping them to grind out wins that could easily have turned out differently. Bolton‘s strong showing on Monday night leaves Southend as the only team yet to have significantly out-created an opponent so far this season, so improvements are urgently needed.
Forest Green remain the most intriguing EFL team this season, sitting top of League 2 despite winning the xG battle in just two matches and seemingly losing it in eight. I’m wondering if my (relatively limited) data is missing something here, but even so I’d be surprised if that’s the only thing going on here. Mansfield‘s poor start looks worse than it actually is, as along with Port Vale they could easily have six additional points on the board by now. Bottom club Stevenage may have been premature in changing managers as four of their matches so far have seen them dominate enough to earn a win.
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