Expected goals league tables, 8-10 Nov 2019

These alternative league tables are calculated using expected goals (as seen in my match timelines). There’s a full explanation in the first post here.

Premier League

The data is still controversially asserting that Man City and Liverpool could easily be in each other’s places in the actual table. Man Utd remain the division’s biggest underachievers, sitting 8 points lower than the model would expect, while Leicester and Newcastle could be running a bit hot.


Leeds continue to look streets ahead in the underlying data and along with Stoke they look to be seriously underachieving so far. Another Bristol City win in a close game today continues their expected goals-defying season but even if the model’s doing them a disservice I’d be surprised to see them remain in the top six unless their underlying performances improve.