Here is the latest update to the E Ratings (explained here) for League 2 and how they predict the rest of the season will pan out.

The graphic below lists each club in descending order of their overall E Rating and shows how this – along with their individual attack and defence ratings – have changed over the past 30 league matches. This is effectively an “alternative league table” based on each club’s underlying performances rather than their actual results.

The red and green arrows indicate how the overall rankings have moved in the past month and the numbers in brackets show the ranks for each team’s attack and defence ratings.

Oxford and Portsmouth remain the top rated sides in the division after both mounting impressive away comebacks which have boosted their ratings.

While Stevenage have sorted their defence out, this looks to be coming at the cost of a cutting edge up front: they barely threatened at Notts County this weekend and will need to find a healthier balance next season.

Carlisle‘s drop had more to do with their mediocre midweek showing at home to Hartlepool and the strong showings of both Luton and Cambridge rather than their solid win this weekend.

Predicting the rest of the season

Below I’ve used each club’s current ratings and those of their remaining opponents to predict how the rest of the season could play out. Each of the remaining fixtures has been simulated thousands of times, using the current E Ratings to generate probabilities for where each club will finish.

This graphic shows the cumulative probability of where each club could finish, in descending order of average points won. You can think of the ordering of the teams down the left hand side as a “best guess” of the final league table, with the coloured bars showing the relative likelihood of each club ending up in a certain section of the table:

Northampton’s promotion has now been confirmed and in all but 66 of the 10,000 simulations I ran they also won the title. Oxford snatched it in 56 and Accrington in the remaining 10, with both in commanding positions to join the Cobblers in being automatically elevated to League 1.

Wimbledon‘s win at Plymouth boosted their chances of claiming the final play-off spot to around two in three, although a host of clubs including resurgent Exeter could take advantage of any slip-ups.

At the bottom it looks to be all over bar the shouting, with York denied a win to go with an impressive performance at the death and now looking virtually certain of joining Dag & Red in the National League next season. They only survived in 31 of my simulations and the Daggers in 12.